Competitive Intelligence

Iowa's 2004 Democratic Caucus Results: Dated Dean, Married Kerry

Kerry and Edwards came out of nowhere in the last couple of weeks or so, to eclipse former frontrunner Howard Dean in last night's Democratic Caucus in Iowa, to take most of the state's 45 delegates to the Democratic National Convention later this year. I think it's an interesting study in competition and how candidates differentiate themselves – with Gephardt dropping out entirely after a disappointing fourth place showing.

Dean was bloodied badly and that outcome doesn't necessarily bode well for their ultimate competitors in this march toward November - the Republicans. Widely considered unelectable by Republican intelligentsia, a Dean win in Iowa would have been music to Republican ears. A Kerry-Edwards win is decidedly more competitive to Bush-Cheney '04. Still, Dean’s surreal address following the results was decidedly un-presidential at best, and just plain weird at worst. It hearkened back to the infamous "Monkey Boy" dance of Microsoft’s CEO Steve Ballmer a few years ago.

On the bright side, Kerry’s going to have a lot to live up to in New Hampshire, where Dean can recast himself as a decidedly less-pressured underdog. But, the dark horse in this race is John Edwards – moving down south for primaries in coming weeks should demonstrate how badly we’ve all underestimated the North Carolina Democrat.

As for the media recaps, the LA Times' Ron Brownstein wonders why Dean got whupped and suggests he hurt himself by going negative while misjudging voters' ongoing anger about the war, most of which had already blown over in the wake of Saddam Hussein’s capture. Brownstein also says Kerry "displayed almost equal appeal to men and women, working class and more affluent voters, liberals and moderates" - suggesting very broad-ranging support among a cross-section of influential voters.

Slate's Will Saletan has similar thoughts and adds that the press killed Dean, and only somewhat undeservedly. But, Saletan's analysis of where this leaves Edwards and Clark in the race for second-place – that is, as running-mate – is more interesting:

The other significant thing for Edwards is that the winner tonight was Kerry, not Dean. Dean's logical running mate was Clark: the New England domestic policy expert and national security rookie, paired with the Arkansas national security expert and domestic policy rookie. Kerry could go with Clark, too. But Kerry doesn't have to, because he's already got the national security credentials as well as the domestic policy expertise. If the hole in Dean's doughnut, as he once called it, was military experience, the hole in Kerry's doughnut is vitality and a common touch, plus regional appeal in the South or Midwest. I could see a Kerry-Clark ticket (or the reverse), but a Kerry-Edwards ticket (or the reverse) is now conceivable. A Dean-Edwards ticket wasn't.

If I'm Clark in New Hampshire, my task just got more complicated. I'm not just fighting to stay above Kerry so I can have a shot at the presidency. I'm also fighting to stay above Edwards so I can have a shot at the vice presidency.

But, a New York Times news analysis warns not to read too much into the outcomes: of the 13 most recent competitive "nominating processes," 10 have had a different candidate win in New Hampshire than in Iowa. For example, one important candidate from years past who lost Iowa was Ronald Reagan.

There were a couple of other interesting recaps:

• Howard Kurtz: Media Notes - A Flood Of Analysis
  
  
• Massachusetts Senator Gets Lift for the Race in New Hampshire
  
  

So, it's starting to get a little more exciting with a tightening of the field of Democrats. I personally think Dean will still get the nomination in the end, as the "Democratic Establishment" continues to line up behind him - but, the Iowa loss was a major blow to a campaign that said today it's glad not to be the front-runner anymore.

- Arik