Competitive Intelligence

Ukraine's Revolution for Independence

Pro-West opposition candidate Viktor Yuschenko won Ukraine's repeat runoff presidential election and jubilantly claimed victory, saying, "It is fashionable to be a Ukrainian. It's stylish. It's beautiful." Supporters hope his margin will be enough to enact his plan to turn the country away from Russia and toward the West.

The election was observed by a record 12,000 international monitors. One observer group has said the election was marked by peace and order, in contrast to the fraud, intimidation, and abuses of power that marred the previous two elections. Whatever the case, Ukraine has a new motto, as demonstrated New Year's Eve, and described in the Slate piece I read on the New Year's celebrations in Kiev - "Together we are many, we will not be defeated!"

In the 13 years since the Soviet Union collapsed (it officially ceased to exist at the end of Dec. 31, 1991), three of its 15 republics—the Baltic states—have joined the European Union. Two—Turkmenistan and Belarus—quickly restored ruthless dictatorships, while the remaining 10 countries have floated somewhere in between, gradually drifting toward restoring old-style bureaucratic tyrannies. In recent years, Russia has taken giant steps back, cracking down on freedoms inside the country, rejuvenating Soviet-era imperial rhetoric, and increasingly meddling in the affairs of its former satellites. Georgia (though its post-revolutionary year has been fraught with problems) was the first to say no to this pattern, and Ukraine has proved that Georgia doesn't have to be the exception. Now the people who organized both revolutions say they will help their allies in other former Soviet republics do the same. Many name Belarus as the next target.

Dancing in Independence Square last night, my friends and I made a date to celebrate next New Year's in Minsk, the capital of Belarus. When it turned out that the four young people with whom we were jumping around a leafless tree, holding hands and passing around a bottle of champagne, were also from Russia, one of my friends said: "It's going to happen for us, too! In a couple of years!" The young people—they must have been college students—hesitated for a second, probably because this is not the sort of thing one would presume to say to strangers in Moscow, and then shouted, "Hooray!"

Good luck in that, as Russia will not quickly let Ukraine leave its sphere of influence for the waiting arms of the EU and NATO anytime soon. As for the rest of us, best wishes for a very happy, healthy and prosperous New Year in 2005!

- Arik

Posted by Arik Johnson at January 1, 2005 11:22 AM | TrackBack