Competitive Intelligence

Edwards Surprises, Dean Drops Out After Wisconsin Democratic Primary

John Kerry thanked Wisconsin voters Tuesday for moving his campaign forward, but Edwards slyly suggested that the state had sent a message to the senator from Massachusetts: "Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear."

Edwards might have his wish for a one-on-one contest, but Kerry may already be out of reach. The challenger faces a tough Super Tuesday. "If Edwards actually wanted to compete for the nomination, he needed to start drawing a contrast with John Kerry a month ago," said Steve Murphy, campaign manager for Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt, who quit the race after finishing fourth in Iowa's Jan. 19 caucuses. "Democrats are coalescing around John Kerry right now … and they are eager to get onto the task of beating George Bush."

His most obvious target would seem blue-collar, non-college-educated voters sympathetic to his tough-on-trade message. However, his biggest surprise came from crossover appeal with Republicans and Independents that find him a seductive alternative to Kerry, despite rumors that Republicans only voted for him to delay the de facto selection of Kerry as the nominee, months ahead of the Democratic Convention.

Wisconsin's open primary and high turnout produced what was the largest and arguably the broadest electorate of the Democratic campaign. That proved critical to Edwards' performance, exit polls of voters showed, and now supplies the North Carolina senator with important bragging rights as he makes the case that he can expand the party's appeal as nominee.

"I think it means I can beat George Bush," Edwards said on CNN. "If we're going to win the general election we're going to have to win independents."

In the election night interview, Edwards pointed to Sunday's presidential debate (the top-rated program in its time slot in Milwaukee) and the endorsement of the Journal Sentinel, the state's biggest newspaper. The Capital Times of Madison also endorsed Edwards.

He also pointed to the issues of jobs and trade, issues he hit hard in a state that has bled 80,000 manufacturing jobs in the last three years. In ads and in the debate, he stressed populist themes and his opposition to NAFTA - the free trade agreement with Canada and Mexico that Kerry voted for a decade ago.

Edwards did not attack Kerry directly on the issue, but the exit polls suggested the debate over trade and jobs had boosted him. About three-quarters of Democratic primary voters saw U.S. trade with other countries as costing Wisconsin jobs.

And jobs and the economy was the leading issue among voters, chosen by about four in 10. Those voters who cared most about jobs and economy favored Edwards over Kerry; voters who cared more about health care or the war in Iraq favored Kerry.

In his speech to supporters Tuesday night in Middleton, Kerry also dealt with trade issues, promising to push for new protections in trade agreements and give "that fair playing field to workers across our country."

"And I'll tell you what we will outsource," Kerry said in his victory speech, in a line similar to one Edwards has used here. "We will outsource the Bush tax cut for the wealthy. We will repeal it so we can invest in health care and the education of our children."

Altogether, around 800,000 Wisconsinites voted in the Democratic presidential primary. (Bush, the only name on the GOP ballot, drew more than 100,000 votes.) That means about 20% of voting-age citizens participated in the Democratic contest, topping the turnout in every contest so far except New Hampshire on Jan. 27, where about 23% turned out. So, in raw numbers, Wisconsin's turnout far outstripped any previous primary or caucus, something not lost on this Wisconsinite, as the state moved up its primary specifically to have more of a voice in picking a nominee.

And it set the stage for what Edwards said he had long wanted after trying to break through what was once a crowded field: a clear two-way race with Kerry, played out over a relatively long period, until the next big primary day, March 2nd.

Going into Wisconsin, Edwards’ strategists saw an opportunity. There would be a full week to campaign in just one state with a history of favoring populists, as he’d promoted himself, and an electorate stacked with independents who, polls in other states showed, Edwards was attracting.

Meanwhile, Howard Dean decided to essentially end his presidential bid Tuesday after he placed a distant third, his 17th straight loss at the polls.

Though Dean is not going to formally drop out of the race, he is going to stop campaigning. The move would allow his supporters to continue to vote for him in the upcoming primaries and have a say at the Democratic National Convention in July.

His loss in Wisconsin came after the former Vermont governor virtually camped out in the state for 10 days, pleading with voters to reignite his faltering candidacy. At one point, he lashed out at Kerry, accusing the Democratic front-runner of supporting corrupt fundraising tactics and describing him as little better than President Bush. Despite the attention Dean showered here, crowds at his events dwindled and his aides grew grim.

So, despite Edwards relatively strong showing, I think it’s still clear that Wisconsin voters are in the same pragmatic mood as voters in other states. One thing’s for sure – we certainly got more attention than we usually do in presidential politics.

- Arik

Posted by Arik Johnson at February 18, 2004 01:21 PM | TrackBack